Time to prepare for the Trump wave of change in EPA regulations

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IRA

The 2022 IRA committed $369 billion in energy security and climate change programs over 10 years. Characterized as the largest investment in the climate in the United States, it’s expected to be targeted for dismantling by the Trump administration.

“Republicans have characterized money that goes to communities to curb emissions as a ‘greendoggle.’ Mr. Trump has promised to repeal the climate law and claw back any unused subsidies and grants,” according to an October 29, 2024, New York Times article (NYT 10/29/24).

However, taking the IRA apart will prove challenging because much of the money (more than 90%) has already been spent and many Republicans are involved in clean energy projects.

“Mr. Trump’s zeal to repeal the [IRA], the landmark climate law that is pouring more than $390 billion into electric vehicles, batteries and other clean energy technology, will quickly face a political test,” notes an NYT article published November 6, 2024 (NYT 11/06/24). “Roughly 80 percent of the money spent so far has flowed to Republican congressional districts, where lawmakers and business leaders want to protect that investment and the jobs they bring.”

LNG exports

Now that the Republicans have secured the House, the Senate, and the presidency, the party will “‘move quickly to deregulate [LNG] exports,’ Tyson Slocum, director of Public Citizen’s Energy Program, said in an email,” notes Utility Dive.

“This will have profound impacts on domestic energy markets, as removing a public interest balanced consideration will prioritize gas exports at the expense of access to domestic supply. We’ll see sharply higher domestic natural gas prices going forward,” Slocum added in the article.

The United States led the world in LNG exports in 2023, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), which means politicians on both sides of the aisle place importance on the export of this resource.

Five LNG export projects are currently under construction, with a combined export capacity of 9.7 billion cubic feet per day, according to the EIA.

“We look forward to working with President-Elect Trump and his new administration to unlock even greater economic, climate, and geopolitical benefits by, first and foremost, lifting the Department of Energy’s ‘pause’ on LNG export permits,” said Charlie Riedl, executive director of the Center for Liquified Natural Gas, according to Utility Dive. “As global energy demand continues to grow, U.S. LNG exports will play a critical role in ensuring the United States remains a global energy powerhouse.”

Mineral mining

Domestic mineral supply chains are expected to be strengthened during Trump’s second term. Domestic mining extraction is also expected to increase.

“In particular, I think you can expect the [Trump] administration to focus heavily on domestic onshoring of all parts of the mineral supply chain, especially mineral extraction,” said Gregory Wischer, founder of critical minerals consultancy Dei Gratia Minerals, according to mining news publication Mining Technology. “He therefore expects the next administration ‘to pursue policies streamlining permitting and imposing tariffs – as President-Elect Trump has noted repeatedly in his speeches – in an effort to incentivize domestic mineral production.’

“The former president has already pledged to overturn a 20-year moratorium on mining in northern Minnesota. During Trump’s previous term in 2020, a report commissioned by the Nuclear Fuel Working Group looking at how to restore US nuclear energy leadership included objectives to streamline regulatory reform and ‘expand access to uranium deposits on federal lands.’

“‘A Trump administration is likely to be pro-mining, which means more mines could be permitted and put into production faster,’ says Hugues Jacquemin, CEO of Canada-based mining company Northern Graphite,” Mining Technology adds.

Paris Accord

Trump previously withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris Climate Accord, wherein 195 countries committed to specific measures to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

President Joseph Biden rejoined the Accord during his term and devoted many of his administration’s resources to reducing GHG emissions in the United States.

Trump is expected to again withdraw from the Accord, although U.S. delegates attended COP29 November 11–22, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan.

“His allies are exploring whether Mr. Trump could also remove the country from the underlying treaty that allows America to take part in global climate negotiations,” the NYT (11/06/24) reported. “That could make it harder for a future president to rejoin the accord as it may require Senate approval.”

Executive Orders for the U.S. withdrawal are already drafted, Politico says.

Laurence Tubiana, one of the original architects of the Paris agreement, says it’s “stronger than any single country’s policies,” the NYT notes (11/06/24).

“She said that in the nine years since the agreement was signed, many nations have heavily invested in solar, wind, nuclear and other non-carbon forms of energy. There is economic momentum behind renewable power, she said, and by spurning it, the United States would risk forfeiting the future.

“Europe now has the responsibility and opportunity to step up and lead,” she added (NYT 11/06/24).

Power plant emissions

In April 2024, the Biden administration finalized four power plant rules (PPRs) to reduce pollution from fossil fuel-fired power plants.

The suite of final rules includes:

A final rule for existing coal-fired and new natural gas-fired power plants that would ensure all coal-fired plants that plan to run in the long term and all new baseload gas-fired plants control 90% of their carbon pollution;
A final rule strengthening and updating the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) for coal-fired power plants, tightening the emissions standard for toxic metals by 67% and finalizing a 70% reduction in the emissions standard for mercury from existing lignite-fired sources;
A final rule to reduce pollutants discharged through wastewater from coal-fired power plants by more than 660 million pounds per year, ensuring cleaner water for affected communities, including communities with environmental justice concerns that are disproportionately impacted; and
A final rule that will require the safe management of coal ash that’s placed in areas that were unregulated at the federal level until now, including at previously used disposal areas that may leak and contaminate groundwater.

“The final emission standards and guidelines will achieve substantial reductions in carbon pollution at reasonable cost,” according to an EPA news release. “The best system of emission reduction for the longest-running existing coal units and most heavily utilized new gas turbines is based on carbon capture and sequestration/storage (CCS) – an available and cost-reasonable emission control technology that can be applied directly to power plants and can reduce 90 percent of carbon dioxide emissions from the plants.”

The current administration has heard lots of criticism on the PPRs, with particular disdain expressed regarding the CCS aspect of the rule. Lawsuits are already in progress about the PPRs, and an argument has been made that requiring CCS technology amounts to an EPA mandate. In previous suits, courts have often struck down regulations that mandate a specific technology.

In Trump’s first term of office, his administration repealed power plant emissions regulations issued by the Obama administration and released his own Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule, which was heavily criticized by environmentalists, who asserted it “was designed to prolong the life of coal-fired power plants, allowing them to spew carbon and other dangerous air pollutants (such as sulfur dioxide) into the air for many more years to come—by redefining downward our most basic notions of efficiency, letting power plants increase pollution, then patting these facilities on the back for their supposed commitment to cleaning up their acts,” notes the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

On August 29, 2024, Trump’s former Interior secretary, David Bernhardt, said Trump would overturn the rules and “put coal country back to work so that all Americans have access to affordable energy,” Reuters says. Details of these plans weren’t shared, but it’s important to note that “[employment] in U.S. coal fields and production of the mineral fell during President-Elect Trump's [previous] four-year term.”

SCOTUS decisions

During Trump’s first term, he appointed three sitting SCOTUS justices. These appointments resulted in achieving a conservative majority among the justices. However, his administration didn’t have time to reap significant rewards from these strategic appointments during his first term.

Many of the environmental regulations established by the Biden administration are expected to be scrutinized and potentially overturned by the conservative SCOTUS majority, which could translate to deregulation victories for Trump’s 2.0 administration.

Additionally, there’s speculation that Justices Clarence Thomas, 76, and Samuel Alito, 74, could announce their retirement during Trump’s second term.

“In his second term, Trump could become the first president since Dwight Eisenhower to appoint a majority of sitting Supreme Court justices, if Thomas and Alito do in fact retire during his second term,” The Hill says.

Project 25

Project 25 is a proposal for conservative governance written as a blueprint for the next Republican administration. Its authors included many former Trump administration employees. Although Trump has distanced himself from the group, many believe “the plan’s vision for climate and energy policy aligns with the former president’s,” NPR notes.

Project 25 “calls for eliminating the office at the [EPA] that’s tasked with reducing pollution in minority communities, cutting back on monitoring of [GHG] emissions that fuel climate change and getting rid of the main government office that does atmospheric research.”

“Project 2025 also describes the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — which includes the National Weather Service and offices that support fisheries and monitor air quality — as a ‘colossal operation that has become one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry,’ and they propose gutting it.”

Project 25 also calls for “slashing the [EPA’s] budget, ousting career staff, eliminating scientific advisers that review the agency’s work and closing programs that focus on minority communities with heavily polluted air and water,” the NYT noted (10/29/24).

There’s no stopping progress

The transition to clean energy is already in progress, with costs continuing to decrease. The United States is too far down the path toward a transition to cleaner energy to completely change course now, analysts say.

Another factor is the increase in investors who are demanding that companies address climate change.

“And states led by Democrats and Republicans alike are reaping economic benefits from new factories and power plants that have received government support,” NPR continues.

“Jason Grumet, chief executive of a trade group called the American Clean Power Association, noted there was a lot of investment and growth in the wind and solar industries during Trump’s first term.”

NPR added that Mindy Lubber, chief executive of Ceres, a nonprofit that advocates for clean energy, “cautioned that while companies might not abandon their climate initiatives, they may be reluctant to advertise them,” which could have negative long-term consequences.

“Leading companies often help companies that aren't as far along in their thinking understand why something is worth doing,” said Rich Lesser, global chair of Boston Consulting Group. “If the leading companies act in a responsible way, in a way that will build advantage for them, but they don't feel like they can talk about it, we will fail to help the broader set of companies understand why they should be taking this on, too.”

Conclusion

A Trump 2.0 administration will move to quickly eliminate Biden’s climate legacy by targeting regulations and policies that don’t benefit the fossil fuel industry. Trump has been very vocal about his belief that cheap energy is the key to more affordable utilities, housing and groceries, and slowing inflation.

Trump is also better prepared to hit the ground running in his second term with a dedicated team and plan in place, having learned valuable lessons from his first term.

“Our long national nightmare with the Green New Deal is finally over because energy was on the ballot in 2024, and energy won,” Daniel Turner, the executive director for Power the Future, a fossil fuel advocacy group, said in a statement. “Let these results serve as a warning to any other politician who feels the green agenda is more important than families.”

“We congratulate President Trump on his election victory. Energy was on the ballot, and voters sent a clear signal that they want choices, not mandates, and an all-of-the-above approach that harnesses our nation’s resources and builds on the successes of his first term. We look forward to working with the incoming administration and leaders in both parties to advance bipartisan solutions that unleash American energy as a driver of economic prosperity, environmental progress and stability around the world,” said Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute (API), in a statement.

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