Adaptation is essential

Since issuing its first assessment report (AR) in 1990, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has presented a progressively darker picture of the losses both the human race and the earth’s environment will face if the average global temperature continues to rise or, at least, if the rise does not slow down. 

ARs are produced by three working groups (WGs), each with a different focus.  WGII concentrates on the “vulnerability of socio-economic and natural systems to climate change, negative and positive consequences of climate change, and options for adapting to it.” 

As part of the most recent AR (AR5), WGII states that “the effects of climate change are already occurring on all continents and across the oceans” and “the world, in many cases, is ill-prepared for risks from a changing climate.”  WGII adds that “there are opportunities to respond to such risks, though the risks will be difficult to manage with high levels of warming.”  The previous WGII assessment (AR4) was published in 2007, and WGII now states that its latest assessment makes use of a “larger knowledge base of relevant scientific, technical, and socioeconomic literature.” 

WGII AR5 spells out, with a new degree of precision, the key risks from a changing climate each of the earth’s continents, as well as small islands, the polar regions, and oceans, are facing in the present, the near term (2030-2040), and the long term (2080-2100).  For example, for North America, the WGII has “high confidence” that increased trends toward drying caused by higher temperatures will result in wildfires that will destroy ecosystems and result in losses of human life and property. 

Government and society can mitigate these effects through adaptation, but with decreasing effectiveness if global temperatures continue to rise.  Specifically, for both the present and near-term, adaptation can mitigate about one-third of the risk, keeping it comfortably within the “medium” range.  However, in the long-term, a 2 degree Celsius (?C) rise in temperatures will push the risk out of the medium range, with adaptation capable of mitigating about one-quarter.  Should temperatures rise by 4?C in the long-term, the risk will be fully in the very high range, with adaptation mitigating only about 10 percent. 

Responses to report

The WGII AR5 received a high-level endorsement from U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.  “Read this report and you can't deny the reality:  Unless we act dramatically and quickly, science tells us our climate and our way of life are literally in jeopardy,” said Kerry.  “Denial of the science is malpractice.  There are those who say we can’t afford to act.  But waiting is truly unaffordable. The costs of inaction are catastrophic.” 

In a statement on the WGII AR5, Mindy Lubber, president of the investor group Ceres, said the biggest companies in the world are changing their business practices and coming out in support of strong climate action. “Everyone we work with should read this report carefully and ask themselves, ‘Given the profound threat, am I, is my organization, doing enough to lead on climate change?'”

Congressional Republicans were quick to attack WGI AR5, which was released in January 2014 and focused on physical science issues.  That assessment indicated that it is “extremely likely that the changes in our climate system for the past half a century are due to human influence.”  In a letter to the State Department, four Republican senators said the assessment was based on “models that overestimate the extent of global temperature increases since 1998,” a modeling “failure” the administration chose to ignore. 

Republican response to WGII AR5 has been more muted.  However, shortly after the assessment was released, the House Budget Committee approved its fiscal year 2015 budget, which “reduces spending for government-wide climate-change-related activities, primarily by reducing the funding federal agencies spend on overseas climate-change activities.”  This is a clear reference to the administration’s strong support for the IPCC.  Currently, the U.S. funds the WGII Technical Support Unit, which ensures the scientific integrity of the assessment. 

In 2011, House Republicans won passage of a bill to end all U.S. funding to the IPCC; that measure went nowhere in the Senate.  A similar attempt was made this year in a bill sponsored by Rep. Jim Bridenstine (R-OK).  As initially written, Bridenstine’s Weather Forecasting Improvement Act of 2014 would have shifted funds for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) from climate change research to weather forecasting.  Democrats succeeded in removing that provision from the version passed by the House.  The Senate has not acted on related legislation. 

‘Observed impacts’

According to the IPCC, WGII AR5 is the work of 309 coordinating lead authors and reviewers drawn from 70 countries who were assisted by 436 contributing authors and 1,726 “expert” and government reviewers.  There is no shortage of voices asserting that the negative effects of climate change are observable today, but the assessment imparts a new level of integrity to those assertions, which will most certainly be referenced by all levels of U.S. government that will continue to take regulatory and nonregulatory actions to mitigate those effects.  The WGII AR5 lists the following observed impacts and vulnerabilities:

• Glaciers continue to shrink almost worldwide, affecting runoff and water resources downstream.  Permafrost is warming and thawing in both high-latitude and high-elevation regions.
• Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions.  While only a few recent species extinctions have been attributed to climate change, natural global climate change at rates slower than current anthropogenic climate change caused significant ecosystem shifts and species extinctions during the past millions of years.
• Negative impacts of climate change on crop yields outnumber positive impacts.  Positive impacts occur mainly in high-latitude regions, though it is not clear whether the balance of impacts has been negative or positive.  Wheat and maize yields for many regions and in the global aggregate have been negatively affected. Effects on rice and soybean yield have been smaller in major production regions and globally.  Observed impacts relate mainly to production aspects of food security rather than access or other components of food security.  Since AR4, periods of rapid food and cereal price increases following climate extremes in key producing regions indicate the sensitivity of current markets to climate extremes.
• At present, the worldwide burden of human ill-health from climate change is relatively small – compared to effects of other stressors—and is not well quantified. However, there has been increased heat-related mortality and decreased cold-related mortality in some regions.  Local changes in temperature and rainfall have altered the distribution of some waterborne illnesses and disease vectors.
• People who are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalized are especially vulnerable to climate change and to some adaptation and mitigation responses.  This heightened vulnerability is rarely due to a single cause.  Rather, it is the product of intersecting social processes that result in inequalities in socioeconomic status and income, as well as in exposure.  Such social processes include, for example, discrimination on the basis of gender, class, ethnicity, age, and (dis)ability.
• Impacts from such recent climate-related extremes as heat waves, droughts, floods, cyclones, and wildfires reveal significant vulnerability and exposure of some ecosystems and many human systems to current climate variability.  Impacts of such climate-related extremes include alteration of ecosystems, disruption of food production and water supply, damage to infrastructure and settlements, morbidity and mortality, and consequences for mental health and physical well-being.  For countries at all levels of development, these impacts are consistent with a significant lack of preparedness for current climate variability.
• Climate-related hazards exacerbate other stressors, often with negative outcomes for livelihoods, especially for people living in poverty.  Climate-related hazards affect poor people’s lives directly through impacts on livelihoods, reductions in crop yields, or destruction of homes and indirectly through increased food prices and food insecurity.  Observed positive effects for poor and marginalized people, which are limited and often indirect, include diversification of social networks and agricultural practices.
• Violent conflict increases vulnerability to climate change.  Large-scale violent conflict harms assets that facilitate adaptation, including infrastructure, institutions, natural resources, social capital, and livelihood opportunities.

Adaptation

The WGII AR5 states that throughout history, people and societies have adjusted to and coped with climate variability and extremes with varying degrees of success.  Current adaptive responses across regions include the following:

• Africa.  Most national governments are initiating governance systems for adaptation.  Disaster risk management, adjustments in technologies and infrastructure, ecosystem-based approaches, basic public health measures, and livelihood diversification are reducing vulnerability, although efforts to date are isolated.
• Europe.  Adaptation policy has been developed across all levels of government, with some adaptation planning integrated into coastal and water management, environmental protection and land planning, and disaster risk management.
• Asia.  Adaptation is being facilitated in some areas by mainstreaming climate adaptation action into subnational development planning, early warning systems, integrated water resources management, agroforestry, and coastal reforestation of mangroves.
• Australia.  Planning for sea-level rise, and in southern Australia, for reduced water availability, has been widely adopted.  Planning for sea-level rise has evolved considerably over the past 2 decades and shows a diversity of approaches, although its implementation remains piecemeal.
• North America.   Governments are engaging in incremental adaptation assessment and planning, particularly at the municipal level.  Some proactive adaptation is occurring to protect longer-term investments in energy and public infrastructure.
• Central and South America.  Ecosystem-based adaptation is occurring, addressing protected areas, conservation agreements, and community management of natural areas.  Resilient crop varieties, climate forecasts, and integrated water resources management are being adopted within the agricultural sector in some areas.
• Arctic.  Some communities have begun to deploy adaptive co-management strategies and communications infrastructure, combining traditional and scientific knowledge.
• Small islands.  Community-based adaptation has been shown to generate larger benefits when delivered in conjunction with other development activities.
• Oceans.  International cooperation and marine spatial planning are starting to facilitate adaptation to climate change, with constraints from challenges of spatial scale and governance issues.

Human health

The assessment states that until the mid-21st century, climate change will impact human health mainly by exacerbating problems that already exist.  For example, WGII is highly confident that there is a greater likelihood of increased injury, disease, and death due to more-intense heat waves and fires.  Some positive effects are expected (e.g., modest reduction in cold-related illness and death and some regions increasing food production).  However, as the years pass, negative impacts are expected to increasingly outnumber and outweigh positive impacts.  “By 2100 for the high-emission scenario, the combination of high temperature and humidity in some areas for parts of the year is projected to compromise normal human activities, including growing food or working outdoors,” states the WGII. 

AR5  

William C. Schillaci
BSchillaci@blr.com